Secondly the ECB is about to undertake €60bn of QE every month starting ‘no later than March 5’. What that means is that the overall system will become short of income earning assets as government bonds are drained by the central banks. Greece may be excluded directly from this process for the time being, but importantly it is the only government in the Eurozone that is on an expansion footing. Everybody else is busily digging their own graves by reducing deficits and other such nonsense and so is issuing as little as possible.
So that leaves new Greek government bonds as pretty much the sole source of anything resembling an interest rate in the whole Eurozone. It will be a very interesting test of ‘liquidity preference’ to see whether all this money that costs banks money to hold on deposit will stay there or whether they will be tempted by the Greek offering.
In other words it ain’t over until the Fat Lady fails to show up at the bond auction.